COT print Tue 23 Jun 2026 · released Fri 26 Jun 2026 · commodities only · VIX 18.4

Two crowds, one map: trade the pressure, not the story.

Every commodity scored weekly on two axes — speculator pressure (who is crowded, which leg is pressing) and hedger stance (are the commercials confirming, or quietly taking the other side). Six signals, all mechanical, all backtested after cost on 6 years of release-aligned data. What isn't validated isn't shown.

THE BOOK LONG Lean HogsLONG Soybean MealLONG PalladiumLONG Wheat HRW vs SHORT CoffeeSHORT Feeder Cattle 👁 Nickel (LME)👁 Lead (LME)
Live signals5
Longs this week4
Shorts this week2
Universe23 CFTC commodities + 4 LME (context) · FX ruled out
01

Signals — this print

Generated mechanically from the data; a market can carry several tags — take one position per market, best-signal precedence (S1 › S2 › S3 › S4 › S5). Enter at/after the Friday release while the chart still looks broken — waiting for technical confirmation historically consumes the entire edge.

S1Squeeze Fuel LONG net +0.53%/wk · t 3.7 · 6/7 yrs · drag-correctedhold 1–2 wk LIVE
Specs pressing shorts at a crowded short — while hedgers buy back their hedges. The two-crowd premium long.
Lean Hogsrel -100
S2Pressing-Shorts Long LONG net +0.40%/wk · t 2.9 · 7/7 yrs · drag-correctedhold 2 wk → exit ~10 Jul 2026 LIVE
The week’s flow was shorts adding, short-leg dominant (L−S+ · driver=short). Fade the pressing crowd.
Soybean Mealrel +9
S3Deep-Short Tilt LONG net +0.66%/wk · t 2.3 · 6/7 yrs · drag-correctedhold rolling while rel ≤ −90 LIVE
Position at its 1-yr short extreme. Persistent long tilt; rolls free, cost on entry only.
Lean Hogsrel -100
S4Unconfirmed Short Crowd LONG net +0.32%/wk · t 2.4 · 5/7 yrs · drag-correctedhold 1 wk LIVE
Specs crowded short (rel ≤ −70) but hedgers are LIGHT — the commercials aren’t backing the bear story.
Palladiumrel -71Lean Hogsrel -100
S5Pressure Spread LONG ×2 SHORT ×2 net +0.26%/wk spread · t 5.3 · 7/7 yrs · short leg alone ~+0.5%/wk grosshold 1 wk, re-rank weeklyLIVE
Rank all 23 by TWO-CROWD pressure flow: spec (dS − dL) + hedger (dhL − dhS), % of OI. Long the 2 most pressed-against, short the 2 most piled-into. Carry-neutral by construction; survives ex-Palladium at spread level (t 4.8). This is where the SHORT side lives.
Palladiumflow 2.4Wheat HRWflow 3.4 vs Coffeeflow -3.7Feeder Cattleflow -3.8
S6Cover-Rally Fade SHORT +0.26%/wk gross · fragile (drop-NatGas t 1.4)hold 1 wk CANDIDATE
Specs covering shorts at mid-crowd while hedgers ADD hedges — producers selling the rally. CANDIDATE: tracked, not traded.
no market qualifies this week
02

The pressure map

All 23 markets, sorted crowd-short → crowd-long. Bar = spec net vs its own 1-yr extreme (rel). The hedger column is the second crowd: LIGHT = commercials are not backing the specs' story. The LME band at the bottom (aluminium · zinc · nickel · lead, Investment Funds vs Commercial Undertakings) runs on an OFFSET week (Fri as-of, Tue release) and only 73 weeks of history — its ~S tags are the same rules applied by analogy, unverified by backtest: watch-list, not signals.

MarketClassSpec positioning · relSpec stateHedgersPx · wkSignal
Lean HogsLivestock -100 PRESSING SHORTS @ DEEP SHORT LIGHT · CUTTING HEDGES −0.2% LONG S1 · S3 · S4
SugarSofts -78 CUTTING LONGS @ CROWDED SHORT NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES +2.9%
CocoaSofts -78 COVERING @ CROWDED SHORT HEAVY · CUTTING HEDGES +20.3%
PalladiumMetals -71 CUTTING LONGS @ CROWDED SHORT LIGHT · CUTTING HEDGES −5.3% LONG S4 · S5·L
NatGasEnergy -62 QUIET @ CROWDED SHORT NEUTRAL · QUIET +1.4%
Wheat SRWGrains -62 PRESSING SHORTS @ CROWDED SHORT LIGHT · CUTTING HEDGES −4.0%
CornGrains -39 PRESSING SHORTS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES −1.1%
Wheat HRWGrains -1 PRESSING SHORTS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES −4.9% LONG S5·L
Soybean MealGrains +9 PRESSING SHORTS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES +0.4% LONG S2
Heating OilEnergy +15 CUTTING LONGS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES +0.5%
SoybeansGrains +16 CUTTING LONGS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES +1.2%
SilverMetals +26 CUTTING LONGS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES −10.7%
BrentEnergy +31 PRESSING SHORTS @ MID HEAVY · CUTTING HEDGES −9.8%
PlatinumMetals +41 COVERING @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES −3.5%
CoffeeSofts +42 BUILDING LONGS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES +2.0% SHORT S5·S
Feeder CattleLivestock +43 BUILDING LONGS @ MID LIGHT · ADDING HEDGES +0.9% SHORT S5·S
WTIEnergy +47 CUTTING LONGS @ MID LIGHT · CUTTING HEDGES −8.7%
CottonSofts +59 COVERING @ MID HEAVY · CUTTING HEDGES −4.1%
Soybean OilGrains +61 CUTTING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG HEAVY · CUTTING HEDGES +2.0%
GoldMetals +71 BUILDING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG LIGHT · CUTTING HEDGES −3.5%
RBOBEnergy +72 BUILDING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG HEAVY · CUTTING HEDGES −2.6%
CopperMetals +88 CUTTING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG HEAVY · CUTTING HEDGES −3.8%
Live CattleLivestock +91 BUILDING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG HEAVY · QUIET −0.3%
LME BASE METALS · Investment Funds vs Commercial Undertakings · as-of Fri 2026-06-26 (offset week) · signals by ANALOGY — unverified, no backtest yet
Lead (LME)LME -76 PRESSING SHORTS @ CROWDED SHORT LIGHT · CUTTING HEDGES WATCH · LONG ~S1 · ~S2 · ~S4
Nickel (LME)LME +42 PRESSING SHORTS @ MID NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES WATCH · LONG ~S2
Aluminium (LME)LME +74 CUTTING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG NEUTRAL · QUIET
Zinc (LME)LME +81 CUTTING LONGS @ CROWDED LONG NEUTRAL · CUTTING HEDGES
swipe → for hedgers · price · signals
03

Evidence — why these six and nothing else

Every rule's after-cost record, plus the graveyard. Standards: one-vote-per-week t, persistence-aware 0.5% entry cost, by-year stability, drop-top-name, threshold wiggles, adversarial controls. Net numbers only.

RuleSide · holdNetStabilityStatusThe kill-tests
S1 Squeeze FuelLONG 1–2wk+0.53%/wkt 3.7 · 6/7 yrsLIVEcontrol (hedgers adding) collapses to t 1.0; number is roll-drag corrected + carry-gated
S2 Pressing-ShortsLONG 2wk+0.40%/wkt 2.9 · 7/7 yrsLIVEsurvives drop-Cocoa, halves, drop-best-year, roll-drag correction; no VIX gate needed
S3 Deep-Short TiltLONG rolling+0.66%/wkt 2.3 · 6/7 yrsLIVEmonotone in depth; drop-Palladium ok; carry gate removes the dead deep-contango slice (−0.03 net)
S4 Unconfirmed Short CrowdLONG 1wk+0.32%/wkt 2.4 · 5/7 yrsLIVEoverlaps S2/S3 — one position per market; weakest LIVE signal after drag correction
S5 Pressure Spread v2LONG+SHORT 1wk+0.26%/wkt 5.3 · 7/7 yrsLIVEtwo-crowd rank, k=2; carry-neutral; ex-Palladium at spread level t 4.8 · 7/7
S6 Cover-Rally FadeSHORT 1wk+0.26%/wk grosst 2.2 → 1.4 ex-NatGasCANDIDATEcontrol flips sign (mechanism real) but concentration kills it — probation
Where the short side livesAbsolute shorting of commodities on positioning has no validated broad edge — bullish crowds are never forced out the way pressured shorts are. Shorts are expressed relatively (S5's short leg, +0.41%/wk gross vs peers) and via the S6 candidate under probation.
Execution rules (verified)Enter while the chart is broken — the edge dies once DMI/ADX confirm. Halve size after a |>8%| week or VIX ≥ 25. Never chase acceleration. Extremes are sizing constraints, not triggers. Carry gate: skip any long in deep contango (F1 vs F2 ≤ −2%) — roll drag arithmetically eats the edge there (that slice nets −0.03).
Status ladderCANDIDATE → LIVE (survives the kill battery) → walk-forwarded weekly on this page; two consecutive negative half-years demote a signal. Everything here is upper-bounded by the 3:30pm ET release-timing caveat.
FX verdictTested to conclusion on both crowds (specs and commercials): grids, cross-sectional spreads, the dollar factor, carry, 1–4 week horizons. Statistical power was sufficient to find any edge that could beat cost. There is none. FX is context, never a trade, on this site.
04

Method

Data: CFTC Disaggregated futures-only (Managed Money = specs; Producer/Merchant = hedgers), self-pulled weekly; prices are release-aligned weekly closes (bars close on the Friday release, so every return is tradeable release→release). rel = spec net vs its trailing 52-week same-side extreme, signed −100…+100; flows are weekly changes in gross legs as % of open interest. Returns are roll-drag corrected: continuation series are spliced without back-adjustment, silently crediting contango roll yield — all published numbers subtract the arithmetic drag (carry × 7/contract-gap). The uncorrected data faked a spectacular "long contango" edge (t 7.7) that is pure artifact; term structure itself, properly measured, is efficiently priced (carry factor ≈ 0, tested and dead). Backtest window: Oct-2020 → Jun-2026, 299 release weeks. Full framework spec, research log and the 272-cell search: COT v2 project (FRAMEWORK.md · BACKTEST_FINDINGS.md · research_cells.csv).

Positioning research, generated mechanically from public CFTC data — not investment advice. Sister site (v1, judgment framework): cot.ziweipalace.com.